The Veepstakes, Part Two: Trump’s Temptation

[W]e think that Trump could face a decision..., a choice between making a flashy pick and playing it safe. Trump is showing plenty of signs of preferring the former option — especially if he unveils his selection during a primetime show at the convention, as seems possible — but it may be that the latter makes more sense, both in football and in politics.

Trump could obviously go any number of ways on his vice presidential pick. His instincts, to the extent that we (or anyone else) can understand them, probably will push him in the direction of an attention-grabbing pick — the Manziel-esque pick. But a better option would probably be a safer, more substantive selection.  - Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

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Based on the list below, who do you see Donald Trump choosing as his running mate:

2016 Republican vice presidential possibilities (in alphabetical order)

Candidate		Key VP Advantages	Key VP Disadvantages
	OUTSIDE THE BOX PICK	•N/A	•N/A
	Jan Brewer Ex-Governor, AZ	•Woman to counteract Clinton •Strong anti-illegal immigration focus	• Appeal may be too similar to Trump’s •Inevitable Palin comparisons
	Scott Brown Ex-Senator, MA	•Blue-collar appeal, famous for driving his truck around on campaign trail •Republican who has won in blue state	•Lost 2014 NH Senate bid •Style over substance? •Too moderate? Social views could hurt party unity
	Shelley Moore Capito Senator, WV	•Woman to counteract Clinton •Well respected and well vetted	•WV is definitely NOT a swing state •Too moderate? Social views could hurt party unity
	Chris Christie Governor, NJ	•Already on board the Trump Train	•Too much of same personality as Trump? •Bridge scandal hangover? •Not going to put NJ in play
	Bob Corker Senator, TN	•Brings serious foreign policy cachet to ticket •Respected member of the Senate, political vet •Geographical diversity	•Might not be flashy enough for Trump •TN is not a swing state
	Joni Ernst Senator, IA	•Woman to counteract Clinton •Swing-state senator •Would bring stylistically different but still-strong stump presence to the ticket	•Lack of high-level governing experience
	Deb Fischer Senator, NE	•Woman to counteract Clinton	•NE is not a swing state
	Mary Fallin Governor, OK	•Woman to counteract Clinton •Credibility with conservatives	•Not a flashy pick •OK is not a swing state
	Newt Gingrich Ex-Speaker of the House	•Strong on the stump •Serves as retrospective critic of Bill Clinton’s administration	•Has-been? • History of infidelity might compound Trump’s problems with women
	Lindsey Graham Senator, SC	•Just kidding	•Yes, just kidding
	John Kasich Governor, OH	•Popular swing-state governor •Long governing track record •Could help further unify party	•Might not have mindset to be a No. 2 •Ran toward center in primary, wouldn’t excite conservatives
	Paul LePage Governor, ME	•Outsider qualities • Duplicates Trump’s appeal	•Loose cannon on the stump • Duplicates Trump’s shortcomings
	David Perdue Senator, GA	•Outsider credentials •Businessman with some governing experience	•First-term senator, probably doesn’t compensate enough for the holes in Trump’s resume
	Rob Portman Senator, OH	•Swing-state senator •Gravitas would reassure elite conservatives •Fundraising machine	•Faces tough reelection race he would have to run in concurrently •Not well-known nationally — or really even in Ohio
	Rick Scott Governor, FL	•Swing-state governor •Already on board the Trump Train	•Mixed governing record, not very popular at home •Medicare fraud scandal in his past
	Tim Scott Senator, SC	•African American, can help Trump address his problems among nonwhite voters •Tons of credibility amongst conservatives	•Seems unlikely to want job •Does not help in swing states, unlikely to make major difference with black voters
	Jeff Sessions Senator, AL	•Already on board the Trump Train, first senator to endorse him	•Doesn’t add anything new or different to the ticket
	John Thune Senator, SD	•Respectable, safe Republican who could add gravitas to Trump ticket	•Largely anonymous nationally
	Scott Walker Governor, WI	•Heroic conservative credentials •Checks boxes for many wings of party	•Underwhelmed in presidential campaign •Backed Ted Cruz in Wisconsin, would Trump pick him?
	Jim Webb Ex-Senator, VA	•Doubles down on white working class appeal •Foreign policy experience and knowledge	•Ostensibly still a Democrat, could prompt convention revolt •Poor on the stump

To Recount or Not to Recount?

You are on the Supreme Court, how would you rule in the case of Bush v. Gore and why?

Vice Presidential Selection: How Much Does It Matter This Year?

"When a presidential campaign wants to signal that it is turning from the nomination clash to the general election, “sources close to the campaign” make it known the Veep search has begun. Right on schedule, as Donald Trump has become the Republican nominee-presumptive and Hillary Clinton has maintained an unassailable mathematical lead on the Democratic side, both campaigns have reportedly hinted that they have started to vet possible vice presidential options." - Larry Sabato

Take a look at the chart below from the Center for Politics of Hillary Clinton's possible VP choices.  Comment on who you think she should pick and why.

Candidate		Key VP Advantages	Key VP Disadvantages
	Tim Kaine Senator, VA	•Swing-state senator •Has been a No. 2 as VA’s Lt. Gov. •Speaks Spanish fluently, Catholic missionary as young man •Dem governor would appoint his replacement •Widely respected	•Not going to excite Sanders’ voters •Not a powerful stump presence •Low profile in Senate
	Julián Castro Secretary of Housing and Urban Development	•Latino pol in an election where that demographic may be more important than ever •Dynamic, youthful; keynoted ’12 DNC	•Short governing resume •Ready for primetime campaign exposure?
	Sherrod Brown Senator, OH	•Could ameliorate Clinton’s problems with left regarding trade issues •Populist/left appeal to Sanders backers •Swing-state senator	•Might pull ticket too far left •GOP governor would appoint his replacement
	Ken Salazar Ex-Secretary of the Interior	•Latino politician from a swing state (CO) •Lengthy resume as senator, cabinet secretary •Westerner provides geographical diversity	•Too moderate? Could rankle Sanders’ voters •Very low key
	Al Franken Senator, MN	•With comedy background, could be Clinton attack dog versus Trump •Dem governor would appoint his replacement •Possibly attractive to Sanders backers	•Might be too loose on the stump •Won’t excite minority voters
	Elizabeth Warren Senator, MA	•Progressives love her •Fundraising machine •Double woman ticket could expand gender gap	•Might pull ticket too far left •Could overshadow Clinton •’12 campaign baggage •GOP governor would appoint short-term replacement early in Clinton’s term
	Amy Klobuchar Senator, MN	•Popular woman senator from Midwest •Double woman ticket could expand gender gap •Dem governor would appoint her replacement	•Not going to excite Sanders’ voters or minority voters •Not a powerful stump presence
	Deval Patrick Ex-Governor, MA	•African-American pol, could help minority turnout •Dynamic on the stump	•Mixed governing record •Now works for Bain Capital
	Cory Booker Senator, NJ	•African-American pol, could help minority turnout •Young, dynamic on the stump	•Closeness to Wall Street hurts with Sanders’ voters •Style over substance? •NY/NJ lacks geographic balance •GOP governor would appoint replacement
	Mark Warner Senator, VA	•Strong executive record •Swing-state senator •Bipartisan respect in Senate	•Closeness to business sector hurts with Sanders’ voters •Might not have mindset to be a No. 2 •Nearly lost Senate seat in 2014
	Joaquín Castro Congressman, TX	•Latino pol in an election where that demographic may be more important than ever •Young, fresh face	•Less known than twin brother Julián •Ready for primetime campaign exposure?
	Tom Perez Secretary of Labor	•Latino pol in an election where that demographic may be more important than ever	•Totally anonymous
	John Hickenlooper Governor, CO	•Swing-state governor •Former big-city mayor	•Not going to excite base
	Bill Nelson Senator, FL	•Swing-state senator •Almost universally liked •Won’t overshadow Clinton, unlikely to eye future pres run	•Older than Clinton •Not going to excite base •GOP governor would appoint replacement
	Evan Bayh Ex-Senator, IN	•Could boost Clinton’s chances in a tough reach state (IN) •Long governing experience as governor and senator •Bipartisan respect in and out of Senate	•Might spark revolt among Sanders’ voters because he’s so moderate
	Terry McAuliffe Governor, VA	•Swing-state governor •Totally loyal to the Clintons •Can raise big-time money •If elected, gives VA D Lt. Gov. the top job and a leg up for 2017 election	•Can come on too strong •Reinforces idea that Clintons are over-reliant on cronies •History as political “fixer” doesn’t fit electoral mood
	Martin Heinrich Senator, NM	•Westerner •Youthful, well-liked by environmentalists	•Anonymous •GOP governor would appoint replacement •NM should be safe for Clinton
	Claire McCaskill Senator, MO	•Could boost Clinton’s chances in a tough "reach" state (MO) •Double woman ticket, has reconciled with Clinton after backing Obama in ’08	•Could potentially cost Democrats a Senate seat •Not going to pull in Sanders’ voters
	Tom Vilsack Secretary of Agriculture	•Was relatively popular governor of swing state (IA) •Governing experience at state and federal level	•Not going to excite base •Largely anonymous nationally
	Bernie Sanders Senator, VT	•Would thrill millions of his backers and unify party to some degree after fractious campaign •Small-dollar fundraising machine	•Clearly could be at odds with Clinton on the campaign trail and in a future administration •Will pull ticket well to the left •Not going to excite minority voters •Six years older than Clinton
	Joe Biden Vice President	•Vast experience  •Knows the job! Plus no moving expenses.	•Age (73 by Election Day ’16) •Has been critical of Clinton, would he want the job again?

The Field Takes Shape

Now that Ted Cruz has suspended his campaign, the candidates for the presidential election  in the fall seem to be Donald Trump for the Republican Party and Hillary Clinton, barring something unforeseen, for the Democrats.

Read Larry Sabato's piece "The Fall Outlook: Fear and Loathing on the 2016 Campaign Trail" and comment below.