1. While reading the article, I was not surprised by its contents. I know that a portion of Trump's support comes from individuals who have lower education levels and are white evangelical Christians and that this demographic in Virginia will most likely lean towards him. Furthermore, I know that Rubio tends to gain favor from those who are highly educated while Cruz needs to improve his support among white evangelicals. I also am aware of the fact that while Kasich may gain some delegates, his chances at victory are not as high as his opponents’. On the other hand, what interested me the most was the Urban Crescent because it will be a decisive factor in the election if Rubio can gain influential support from the heavily concentrated highly educated individuals in this area. Overall, I know that education levels, population density, and religion will be important factors to consider for the Republicans. As for the Democrats, I was not surprised to read that African-Americans will lean more towards Clinton and that Virginia Democrats will primarily be facing a binary election despite the fact that O'Malley's name is on the ballot. What caught my attention, however, was the idea that "socialist" Sanders could gain more support than Hillary from Democrats living in the rural, southwestern parts of Virginia. It is not unusual that Northern Virginia will be a decisive factor in the Democratic election due to its fragmentally diverse population. 2. I think Marco Rubio will win the Republican vote seeing to the fact that Virginia has highly educated voters heavily populated in certain areas such as those in the Urban Crescent. Moreover, the state is not as evangelical as other southern states are which will not give Trump or Cruz an overwhelming edge. As for the Democrats, I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the vote due to the fact that Virginia has an influential African-American and overall diverse population. She also appeals more to the Democrats in Virginia who, many of which, are not as liberal as Sanders.
It didnt say anything surprising. I definitley agree that this might be the biggest state for rubio. Although i dont think sanders will be as popular as the author predicted.
I think Trump will definitley win. He has quite a bit of momentum going for him so i just dont think he will be stopped, especially in the highly uneducated portions of the state. I also think clinton will win big here due to the diversity of Northern Virginia.
Katelyn Wolfgang: 1) I was not really surprised by a lot of the article. I know that Trump does well with those that are not as educated as well as evangelicals. Though previous results, I have seen already that Clinton has a strong appeal with African Americans. I did not know that Sanders was doing better in West Virginia than Clinton so I was surprised by this. I was also surprised that for the Republican candidates, that they could win at least 1 delegate if they get slightly over 1% of the vote. I did not think such a small percent would get them anything.
2) I think Rubio will win for the Republican party because of the large amount of highly educated people in the Urban Crescent as well as the large population. Also, there are not as many evangelicals as in other states which could bring Trump down. I think Clinton will win for the Democratic party because of how she does well with African American voters as well as the large amount of other minority groups being that Virginia is near Washington D.C so there is a large amount of different races as that area is a mixing pot of nationalities and cultures.
I'm not surprised by the article because I feel that Trump has and will continue to have momentum in this race, especially with those who enjoy the idea of nationalism and getting rallied up over someone who "may do something" extravagant such as build a wall and lock out any racially diverse groups. I also believed that today was a big day for Rubio in that it could make or break him, with the state he's in. I am also not surprised that Clinton is doing so well because she easily connects with minority groups such as African Americans. As for Virginia, I think Trump will win. He is making claims and is a strong force in the race as always, so I don't see why he wouldn't. I also feel like there are a good amount of republicans here looking for change. I would like to say Berne will win Virginia, but it just doesn't look in his favor. Sadly I think Clinton will catch the attention of the diverse culture of this southern state and win it.
1. The article really did not surprise me. I believe Rubio and Sanders have a very good chance of winning the Virginia primaries. I think Rubio with win by a landslide and Trump and Cruz will not will do well. Although Kasich might be a good candidate, I agree with the article that he will not do very well either. If Kasich had gained traction earlier in the race, I think he would have a very strong chance in Virginia. Also, I think Hillary and Sanders are going to be neck and neck and even if Sanders does win the primary, Hillary Clinton will come up in a close second. 2. I think Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton will win in Virginia. Rubio is gaining traction by not being the one "crazy" and radical candidate and even though there is Kasich, it's too late for him. Also I think Hillary will win because many believe Sanders is too radical and will wreck our economy.
I'm not too surprised by the article, as it only confirms current suspicions. The candidates with the most momentum (Trump, Rubio) will probably continue to come out on top, while the less popular candidates (Kasich) will remain at the bottom of the polls.
I think Rubio and Sanders will win Virginia. Trump may have a lot of popularity, but I deeply hope that Rubio will continue to gain popularity and perhaps steal some success from Trump. Based on Hillary's performance in the election against Obama, I think Virginians will vote for Sanders instead.
1. I find that all of the information in this article is just what I saw happening, but backed by data. I can seem Trump winning, only because of his current momentum, but I can certainly see Rubio pulling ahead if he gets more of the "Urban Crescent". However, I am hesitant to really see Rubio winning because most of Virginia is not highly educated (Associate's degree or higher), according to the last image under the Republican information, making it the perfect playground for Trump. I am surprised, however, that the article's author states there was a strong Republican shift in Virginia, thus whoever votes Democratic may vote Sanders over Hillary. I just find that Republican shift interesting and very noteworthy, if not confusing, for the Democratic ballot.
2. Based on the article, I assume Trump and Clinton will win. However, I feel that both Rubio and Sanders may surprise us and win. Virginia appears to be very diverse in its population, education, and party support that makes it hard to formulate a fair or educated guess as to who will win.
Rubio's polling at 35% in Northern Virginia over Trump's 31%. In fact, Northern Virginia is one of the few districts, outside Florida, where Rubio is polling over Trump. I think Rubio will do well in Northern Virginia, meaning he has a chance at beating Trump in NOVA, but this is not what donors want and Trump will inevitably win the state. I do also think Governor Kasich will do better than the polls predict as more moderate Republicans move from Rubio to Kasich after his past few debate performances that highlight his scripted qualities and weak record in the Senate. I tend to think these polls overemphasize the views of party activists (think Trump and Rubio supporters) who respond to polls and questionnaires and can at times be quite misleading; this is exactly what happened in the days leading up to the Iowa caucuses. Finally, I would note that the role education plays in Trump's popularity is largely overrated; by and large, Mr. Trump is a political force that transcends race, education, age, religious, and gender divisions that one might expect given his views and temperament.
On the Democratic ticket, I think Clinton will win. While the Republican primary sees less identity politics and demographic divisions, the Democratic primary in Virginia will be defined by both. Simply put, Virginia's electorate makeup is such that Sander's far-left agenda will not be appealing.
1. I'm not surprised by this article as I know Rubio has been more popular among higher educated voters, while Trump has appealed to lower educated voters. Since, the highest percentages of college graduates are populated in the "urban crescent" regions around DC, Richmond, and Hampton Roads, which also hold the highest population in Virginia, and the population of lower educated voters in more centered in the west and southwest, Rubio has a potential majority over Trump. However, I found it interesting that, in 2008, Hillary Clinton won mostly western districts, while she is currently projected to win mostly eastern districts.
2. I think Rubio and Clinton will win. Rubio will win because he appeals to higher educated voters who also make up the areas with the highest concentration of the population. I think Clinton will win because voters in Virginia are so diverse, Sanders' policies are too far left to appeal to the majority.
1. This article confirmed most of what I believed about Trumps supporters. I was surprised to find that higher educated republicans went to Rubio more than Trump, but Im not so sure that those are a large demographic. I still think Virginia will either go to Rubio or Trump . I am also eager to see whether Sanders will beat Clinton or vice versa. 2. If I had to pick either Trump or Rubio, I'd pick Trump due to the amount of less educated and evangelicals Virginia has. Between Sanders and Clinton, I think it will be extremely close with Sanders finishing slightly ahead.
This article is not a surprising prediction of Virginia's primary. I was surprised that the author thinks that Rubio will do best in the better-educated Urban Crescent area, but was not at all surprised about Trump's projected win among lower educated voters. I also found the projected shift for Hiliary Clinton's strongest areas from western districts (in 2008) to eastern districts surprising.
I think this will be a clear victory for Clinton, because her policies appeal more with Virginia voters than Sanders'. On the Republican side, I think it becomes a close race between Trump and Rubio, and I could see Rubio making an upset. I think because Rubio plays stronger among the more educated voters, he has a very good shot at winning on Tuesday.
1.) I was not surprised at what Skelley wrote regarding the Democratic nomination. But I was surprised at his confidence in Rubio. This is because of the demographics of Virginia.
2.) I believe that Trump will win the Republican nomination for Virginia. Not only is most of Virginia not highly educated, but also the demographics show that there is a high white population. Because Trump supporters and mostly low-educated and white, Trump is more likely to win Virginia. For the Democratic nomination, I believe that Bernie has a chance to win. This is because Hillary is very popular with non-white voters, and Virginia is mostly white.
1. In recent elections, Virginia has been a key battleground state, and this article serves to reaffirm that notion. It doesn't surprise me that analysis would be given to the divide between what seems to be the two Virginias, as this is what makes Virginia a battleground state to begin with, nor does it surprise me that Rubio would be more popular in the Urban Crescent and Trump more supported elsewhere, leading to a very close primary. However, what does surprise me lies in Skelley's analysis of the Democratic field of the primary. My surprise largely rests in the fact that, since the 2008 election, the Virginia that has supported Clinton has changed.
2. Based on the analysis and from previous primaries, I believe that Trump will win the Republican primary in Virginia. It won't be as large of a margin as his previous wins, and in fact, I'm inclined to say it's almost a toss-up between Trump and Rubio, but what makes me see Trump as more favored is the appeal that he carries outside of the Urban Crescent. While the Urban Crescent is certainly important, alone it has not determined the fate of Virginia, it requires additional support from other localities that Rubio simply does not have. In the Democratic nomination, it is again a close race, but I see Clinton emerging over Sanders. If the nature of Eastern Virginia's vote has changed to supporting Clinton over Sanders, this puts Clinton up with her votes from the Urban Crescent, and if the 2008 election results from Western Virginia remain largely for Clinton, there is a chance for her to win by a larger margin over Sanders. While Sanders does have more support from white voters, the Western Virginian field he is playing to is not largely Democratic by nature, which presents itself as a challenge for Sanders's platform.
I wasn't suprised by the article, it seems that Rubio has a really good chance of winning in Virginia. I think that Trump will do well also, especially in the southern virginia regions.
My prediction is that Rubio will win for the Republicans and Clinton will win for the democrats. Rubio has gained a lot of momentum and is labeled as a solid middle of the road republican candidate which will do well in the Urban crescent, and Clinton will win because she is a well known name and her African American supporters will continue to support her through this race.
1) The article was more or less confirming what I already suspected. Virginia will be important for non-Trump GOP candidates, especially Rubio, who outside Trump seems like the most likely candidate. Rubio will perform well in NOVA and populous areas, Trump will draw mostly from southern, rural areas, the winner ultimately will be decided by Rubio winning southern districts or Trump winning northern ones. As it stands now, I think Trump will take VA, but not by the margin he is accustomed to. On the Democratic side, this is more of the same as well, Sanders will perform better in urban areas, but Hillary will take everything else, and even a good portion of the urban areas as well.
2)I believe Trump and Clinton will win Virginia. Trump won't win by as much as in S. Carolina, but that won't stop the Trump Train. Rubio is the dark horse in this state, and he probably needs VA if he wants to prove he can win, but I just don't see it happening. Clinton will win VA, because it is more rural, she will split urban areas, and Sanders is more or less losing his appeal as an underdog candidate, as he has risen in polls, the younger voters probably think their job is done. The true determining factor for Sanders will be getting people out to vote if he wants to win.
I was not surprised by this article. Everything read had already been predicted over the past few weeks, and this just confirmed those predictions (that Trump and Hillary were favorites). Republican candidates e.g. Rubio should use VA as a way of getting leverage on Trump because there aren't many evangelicals and poorly educated individuals in VA. Rubio should focus more on the NOVA region because there is a greater number of higher educated individuals situated there, and they happen to favor Rubio. I don't think Cruz will do very well in VA, his perfomance in South Carolina was poor and he's been a consistent 3rd place candidate since. If Cruz is to get something out of VA, his only option would be to appeal more to evangelicals.
The article stated that Hillary was seen in two different polls leading by double digit figures. This is expected because places in VA e.g. Fairfax and Prince William's County have a greater abundance in minorities (which favor Hillary). Although there was one poll which had Bernie ahead of Hillary, I don't think VA is going to be a success for him.
I was not very surprised when I was reading this article. I had previously known that the lesser educated tend to vote with Trump while the more educated tend to vote with Rubio. I was a little more surprised with the democratic side for the previous voting years. I did not know how big a split Virginia was for Obama and Clinton. On the map they showed an almost straight line right through Virginia in who voted for who. Which I did not know. I think that for the Republicans, the winner will be Rubio. And for the democrats I think it will be Clinton because she will have more appeal over more of the state.
1) I am not surprised by anything I read in this article. Much of what the article discussed was simply confirming everything we already know. Rubio and Sanders will take areas like NOVA, and the higher educated, while Trump and Clinton will take areas with the less educated and possibly Richmond. Cruz and O'malley might take votes away from Trump and Clinton respectively, but that might only give them second place by a small margin, or a win by a small margin.
2) I think Trump will win Virginia. He has been performing better in most primaries and caucuses than the other candidates. He also has the majority of southern Virginias vote, where a large percentage of the primary votes come from. Trump will more than likely win by a fairly large margin. On the Democrats side, it will be a tight race. Sanders currently has a strong foothold in NOVA, since most of the NOVA population is very liberal, and much younger than the rest of Virginia. However, NOVA doesn't account for enough of the vote to guarantee Sanders a win, especially when Clinton currently holds Richmond, and older, less educated, Southern Virginia. Sanders might start leading in Western Virginia, and then the Urban Crest if younger, more liberal voters come out to the Primary. Sanders will probably win Virginia by a small margin, but that would give him 2 states and could possibly close the gap between him and Clinton, depending on his performance in other states.
1) I'm not very surprised at what this article had to say. For the most part, the maps of Virginia show the clear difference between northern and southern Virginia and I think this will show dramatically in who wins which parts of Virginia. You can tell that most people in this area support Marco Rubio rather than Trump and it shows in the article, especially with the map about college education. 2) I think that Hillary will win the Democratic side, mostly because she will have the support of most of Virginia. Besides a few districts it looks to me that Hillary will win, especially in the southern area since she is more likely to get the African American vote. However since Northern Virginia shows more of an Asian minority versus an African American minority, I think Bernie might do better here rather than Hillary (however that won't be enough to win). On the Republican side I think it'll be a tighter race. I'm guessing Rubio will win the north and Trump will win the south with a few districts voting Cruz, but overall I think Trump might take the W here in Virginia (to the dismay of many republicans in Loudoun County). -Sofia Ackerman
1.My initial reaction was just surprise at how white the southwestern part of Virginia really is. We know that Bernie Sanders typically does better with white voters; however, he also typically does better with college age voters, or parents with college age children that are angry at outrageous tuition. The areas in which there are "collegey" people typically also have a high population of nonwhite voters based on the graphs. So I suppose my initial reaction is that Bernie is feeling the burn: heart burn. I would imagine his chance of winning much of anything in Virginia is basically zero.
2. So, going off of that, Hillary will win Virginia on the democratic side, simply going off of trends, and the electorate. Hillary will win among those that don't understand the want for free college, and among minority populations, and those seem to me to be the two types of counties in Virginia. On the Republican side, I was extremely surprised by some points brought up in the article, specifically of the idea that Northern Virginia's more 'intelligent' electorate will be gunning for Marco Rubio. I should hope that an intelligent electorate would be able to see through Rubio's crap to pick a true fiscal conservative such as Kasich. That being said, I think Trump will take Virginia. That white southwestern uneducated area of Virginia is right up his ally. 58% of GOP primary voters in 2012 were college graduates, this election will have a much higher turnout rate which will play into Trump's favor, as when turnout rates are higher that percentage often goes down.
1. I wasn't very surprised with this data because Virginia is pretty predictable. It is very diverse since Northern Virgina is close to DC and the south is largely uneducated white people. I think it makes a lot of sense more educated republicans are leaning towards Rubio because he brings some sanity to the race and Trump predictably gets the uneducated vote because as we know he loves the uneducated vote. 2. I think Rubio wins and so does Hillary. Rubio will rack up the urban crescent getting a large number of educated votes. I think the key for Rubio would be Trump and Cruz splitting the votes in the south and negating each other making Rubio shoot up. On the democratic side I think Hillary has that perfect southern democrat vote and the backing of the establishment to counteract any momentum Bernie gets from Northern Virginia - Jake Haines
1. The article does not surprise me because of how much time that rubio has spent in Virginia. Rubio has spent a lot of time campaigning in Virginia and i feel that he can beet out trump in the primary. Sanders also has a good chance of beating hillary in northern Virginia becuase of all the colleges around this area and bernie does well with college age voters.
2. I feel that trump and hillary will win in viringa just becuase of their popularity throughout the state. Hillary has support in both the south and in the north while bernie has most of his support in the north. Trump is just Trump i feel he will win because hes trump.
1) Nothing in this article really surprises me. The article made me think about how many "moderates" Kasich will take from Rubio. Since Rubio supposedly does better among the higher educated, he will definitely make a strong showing in NoVA, but the question is if a strong showing in NoVA will be enough to beat Trump. There's not much to discuss on the Democrtic side; Hillary will definitely win. 2) Even though Rubio will make a strong showing, I predict Trump to win. His support transcends all categorization, and the highly educated vote won't be able to beat the conglomerate of trump support.
1. I'm not really surprised by the article. Marco Rubio and Bernie Sanders have NoVa in the bag because of their campaining in the area. Rubio will be a favorite amongst the more educated. Hilary Clinton Donald trump will lead in the south and among the less educated. 2. I think that Trump will win with Rubio as a close second. My reasoning for this is that across the country Trump seems to be a favorite and in the lead. Rubio has come in as a close second to Trump. For the Democrats I think that Hilary will win. Though, Bernie would win the young vote because he has concentrated on the young voters and going to colleges, but he doesn't appeal to most voters in Virginia.
My reactions to this article were pretty interesting! I wasn't really surprised with the fact that Rubio and Sanders have huge fans in Virginia especially in this area that we live in. Virginia is also really predictable because of the variety of people that live here. It makes sense how the less educated people will vote for Trump and the more educated people will vote for Rubio! I think Trump will win and Rubio will come in second and I think Hilary will win but Bernie will probably come in close! He has talked about making college free and stuff but in VA I don't think it'll show the strong effects for democrats so Hilary will probably beat him in the primaries. -Sejal Desai
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ReplyDelete1. While reading the article, I was not surprised by its contents. I know that a portion of Trump's support comes from individuals who have lower education levels and are white evangelical Christians and that this demographic in Virginia will most likely lean towards him. Furthermore, I know that Rubio tends to gain favor from those who are highly educated while Cruz needs to improve his support among white evangelicals. I also am aware of the fact that while Kasich may gain some delegates, his chances at victory are not as high as his opponents’. On the other hand, what interested me the most was the Urban Crescent because it will be a decisive factor in the election if Rubio can gain influential support from the heavily concentrated highly educated individuals in this area. Overall, I know that education levels, population density, and religion will be important factors to consider for the Republicans. As for the Democrats, I was not surprised to read that African-Americans will lean more towards Clinton and that Virginia Democrats will primarily be facing a binary election despite the fact that O'Malley's name is on the ballot. What caught my attention, however, was the idea that "socialist" Sanders could gain more support than Hillary from Democrats living in the rural, southwestern parts of Virginia. It is not unusual that Northern Virginia will be a decisive factor in the Democratic election due to its fragmentally diverse population.
ReplyDelete2. I think Marco Rubio will win the Republican vote seeing to the fact that Virginia has highly educated voters heavily populated in certain areas such as those in the Urban Crescent. Moreover, the state is not as evangelical as other southern states are which will not give Trump or Cruz an overwhelming edge. As for the Democrats, I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the vote due to the fact that Virginia has an influential African-American and overall diverse population. She also appeals more to the Democrats in Virginia who, many of which, are not as liberal as Sanders.
It didnt say anything surprising. I definitley agree that this might be the biggest state for rubio. Although i dont think sanders will be as popular as the author predicted.
ReplyDeleteI think Trump will definitley win. He has quite a bit of momentum going for him so i just dont think he will be stopped, especially in the highly uneducated portions of the state. I also think clinton will win big here due to the diversity of Northern Virginia.
Katelyn Wolfgang:
ReplyDelete1) I was not really surprised by a lot of the article. I know that Trump does well with those that are not as educated as well as evangelicals. Though previous results, I have seen already that Clinton has a strong appeal with African Americans. I did not know that Sanders was doing better in West Virginia than Clinton so I was surprised by this. I was also surprised that for the Republican candidates, that they could win at least 1 delegate if they get slightly over 1% of the vote. I did not think such a small percent would get them anything.
2) I think Rubio will win for the Republican party because of the large amount of highly educated people in the Urban Crescent as well as the large population. Also, there are not as many evangelicals as in other states which could bring Trump down. I think Clinton will win for the Democratic party because of how she does well with African American voters as well as the large amount of other minority groups being that Virginia is near Washington D.C so there is a large amount of different races as that area is a mixing pot of nationalities and cultures.
I'm not surprised by the article because I feel that Trump has and will continue to have momentum in this race, especially with those who enjoy the idea of nationalism and getting rallied up over someone who "may do something" extravagant such as build a wall and lock out any racially diverse groups. I also believed that today was a big day for Rubio in that it could make or break him, with the state he's in. I am also not surprised that Clinton is doing so well because she easily connects with minority groups such as African Americans.
ReplyDeleteAs for Virginia, I think Trump will win. He is making claims and is a strong force in the race as always, so I don't see why he wouldn't. I also feel like there are a good amount of republicans here looking for change. I would like to say Berne will win Virginia, but it just doesn't look in his favor. Sadly I think Clinton will catch the attention of the diverse culture of this southern state and win it.
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ReplyDelete1. The article really did not surprise me. I believe Rubio and Sanders have a very good chance of winning the Virginia primaries. I think Rubio with win by a landslide and Trump and Cruz will not will do well. Although Kasich might be a good candidate, I agree with the article that he will not do very well either. If Kasich had gained traction earlier in the race, I think he would have a very strong chance in Virginia. Also, I think Hillary and Sanders are going to be neck and neck and even if Sanders does win the primary, Hillary Clinton will come up in a close second.
ReplyDelete2. I think Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton will win in Virginia. Rubio is gaining traction by not being the one "crazy" and radical candidate and even though there is Kasich, it's too late for him. Also I think Hillary will win because many believe Sanders is too radical and will wreck our economy.
I'm not too surprised by the article, as it only confirms current suspicions. The candidates with the most momentum (Trump, Rubio) will probably continue to come out on top, while the less popular candidates (Kasich) will remain at the bottom of the polls.
ReplyDeleteI think Rubio and Sanders will win Virginia. Trump may have a lot of popularity, but I deeply hope that Rubio will continue to gain popularity and perhaps steal some success from Trump. Based on Hillary's performance in the election against Obama, I think Virginians will vote for Sanders instead.
1. I find that all of the information in this article is just what I saw happening, but backed by data. I can seem Trump winning, only because of his current momentum, but I can certainly see Rubio pulling ahead if he gets more of the "Urban Crescent". However, I am hesitant to really see Rubio winning because most of Virginia is not highly educated (Associate's degree or higher), according to the last image under the Republican information, making it the perfect playground for Trump.
ReplyDeleteI am surprised, however, that the article's author states there was a strong Republican shift in Virginia, thus whoever votes Democratic may vote Sanders over Hillary. I just find that Republican shift interesting and very noteworthy, if not confusing, for the Democratic ballot.
2. Based on the article, I assume Trump and Clinton will win. However, I feel that both Rubio and Sanders may surprise us and win. Virginia appears to be very diverse in its population, education, and party support that makes it hard to formulate a fair or educated guess as to who will win.
Rubio's polling at 35% in Northern Virginia over Trump's 31%. In fact, Northern Virginia is one of the few districts, outside Florida, where Rubio is polling over Trump. I think Rubio will do well in Northern Virginia, meaning he has a chance at beating Trump in NOVA, but this is not what donors want and Trump will inevitably win the state. I do also think Governor Kasich will do better than the polls predict as more moderate Republicans move from Rubio to Kasich after his past few debate performances that highlight his scripted qualities and weak record in the Senate. I tend to think these polls overemphasize the views of party activists (think Trump and Rubio supporters) who respond to polls and questionnaires and can at times be quite misleading; this is exactly what happened in the days leading up to the Iowa caucuses. Finally, I would note that the role education plays in Trump's popularity is largely overrated; by and large, Mr. Trump is a political force that transcends race, education, age, religious, and gender divisions that one might expect given his views and temperament.
ReplyDeleteOn the Democratic ticket, I think Clinton will win. While the Republican primary sees less identity politics and demographic divisions, the Democratic primary in Virginia will be defined by both. Simply put, Virginia's electorate makeup is such that Sander's far-left agenda will not be appealing.
1. I'm not surprised by this article as I know Rubio has been more popular among higher educated voters, while Trump has appealed to lower educated voters. Since, the highest percentages of college graduates are populated in the "urban crescent" regions around DC, Richmond, and Hampton Roads, which also hold the highest population in Virginia, and the population of lower educated voters in more centered in the west and southwest, Rubio has a potential majority over Trump. However, I found it interesting that, in 2008, Hillary Clinton won mostly western districts, while she is currently projected to win mostly eastern districts.
ReplyDelete2. I think Rubio and Clinton will win. Rubio will win because he appeals to higher educated voters who also make up the areas with the highest concentration of the population. I think Clinton will win because voters in Virginia are so diverse, Sanders' policies are too far left to appeal to the majority.
1. This article confirmed most of what I believed about Trumps supporters. I was surprised to find that higher educated republicans went to Rubio more than Trump, but Im not so sure that those are a large demographic. I still think Virginia will either go to Rubio or Trump . I am also eager to see whether Sanders will beat Clinton or vice versa.
ReplyDelete2. If I had to pick either Trump or Rubio, I'd pick Trump due to the amount of less educated and evangelicals Virginia has. Between Sanders and Clinton, I think it will be extremely close with Sanders finishing slightly ahead.
This article is not a surprising prediction of Virginia's primary. I was surprised that the author thinks that Rubio will do best in the better-educated Urban Crescent area, but was not at all surprised about Trump's projected win among lower educated voters. I also found the projected shift for Hiliary Clinton's strongest areas from western districts (in 2008) to eastern districts surprising.
ReplyDeleteI think this will be a clear victory for Clinton, because her policies appeal more with Virginia voters than Sanders'. On the Republican side, I think it becomes a close race between Trump and Rubio, and I could see Rubio making an upset. I think because Rubio plays stronger among the more educated voters, he has a very good shot at winning on Tuesday.
1.) I was not surprised at what Skelley wrote regarding the Democratic nomination. But I was surprised at his confidence in Rubio. This is because of the demographics of Virginia.
ReplyDelete2.) I believe that Trump will win the Republican nomination for Virginia. Not only is most of Virginia not highly educated, but also the demographics show that there is a high white population. Because Trump supporters and mostly low-educated and white, Trump is more likely to win Virginia. For the Democratic nomination, I believe that Bernie has a chance to win. This is because Hillary is very popular with non-white voters, and Virginia is mostly white.
1. In recent elections, Virginia has been a key battleground state, and this article serves to reaffirm that notion. It doesn't surprise me that analysis would be given to the divide between what seems to be the two Virginias, as this is what makes Virginia a battleground state to begin with, nor does it surprise me that Rubio would be more popular in the Urban Crescent and Trump more supported elsewhere, leading to a very close primary. However, what does surprise me lies in Skelley's analysis of the Democratic field of the primary. My surprise largely rests in the fact that, since the 2008 election, the Virginia that has supported Clinton has changed.
ReplyDelete2. Based on the analysis and from previous primaries, I believe that Trump will win the Republican primary in Virginia. It won't be as large of a margin as his previous wins, and in fact, I'm inclined to say it's almost a toss-up between Trump and Rubio, but what makes me see Trump as more favored is the appeal that he carries outside of the Urban Crescent. While the Urban Crescent is certainly important, alone it has not determined the fate of Virginia, it requires additional support from other localities that Rubio simply does not have. In the Democratic nomination, it is again a close race, but I see Clinton emerging over Sanders. If the nature of Eastern Virginia's vote has changed to supporting Clinton over Sanders, this puts Clinton up with her votes from the Urban Crescent, and if the 2008 election results from Western Virginia remain largely for Clinton, there is a chance for her to win by a larger margin over Sanders. While Sanders does have more support from white voters, the Western Virginian field he is playing to is not largely Democratic by nature, which presents itself as a challenge for Sanders's platform.
Teddy Chu
I wasn't suprised by the article, it seems that Rubio has a really good chance of winning in Virginia. I think that Trump will do well also, especially in the southern virginia regions.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction is that Rubio will win for the Republicans and Clinton will win for the democrats. Rubio has gained a lot of momentum and is labeled as a solid middle of the road republican candidate which will do well in the Urban crescent, and Clinton will win because she is a well known name and her African American supporters will continue to support her through this race.
1) The article was more or less confirming what I already suspected. Virginia will be important for non-Trump GOP candidates, especially Rubio, who outside Trump seems like the most likely candidate. Rubio will perform well in NOVA and populous areas, Trump will draw mostly from southern, rural areas, the winner ultimately will be decided by Rubio winning southern districts or Trump winning northern ones. As it stands now, I think Trump will take VA, but not by the margin he is accustomed to. On the Democratic side, this is more of the same as well, Sanders will perform better in urban areas, but Hillary will take everything else, and even a good portion of the urban areas as well.
ReplyDelete2)I believe Trump and Clinton will win Virginia. Trump won't win by as much as in S. Carolina, but that won't stop the Trump Train. Rubio is the dark horse in this state, and he probably needs VA if he wants to prove he can win, but I just don't see it happening. Clinton will win VA, because it is more rural, she will split urban areas, and Sanders is more or less losing his appeal as an underdog candidate, as he has risen in polls, the younger voters probably think their job is done. The true determining factor for Sanders will be getting people out to vote if he wants to win.
I was not surprised by this article. Everything read had already been predicted over the past few weeks, and this just confirmed those predictions (that Trump and Hillary were favorites). Republican candidates e.g. Rubio should use VA as a way of getting leverage on Trump because there aren't many evangelicals and poorly educated individuals in VA. Rubio should focus more on the NOVA region because there is a greater number of higher educated individuals situated there, and they happen to favor Rubio. I don't think Cruz will do very well in VA, his perfomance in South Carolina was poor and he's been a consistent 3rd place candidate since. If Cruz is to get something out of VA, his only option would be to appeal more to evangelicals.
ReplyDeleteThe article stated that Hillary was seen in two different polls leading by double digit figures. This is expected because places in VA e.g. Fairfax and Prince William's County have a greater abundance in minorities (which favor Hillary). Although there was one poll which had Bernie ahead of Hillary, I don't think VA is going to be a success for him.
Gerald Bonsu
I was not very surprised when I was reading this article. I had previously known that the lesser educated tend to vote with Trump while the more educated tend to vote with Rubio. I was a little more surprised with the democratic side for the previous voting years. I did not know how big a split Virginia was for Obama and Clinton. On the map they showed an almost straight line right through Virginia in who voted for who. Which I did not know.
ReplyDeleteI think that for the Republicans, the winner will be Rubio. And for the democrats I think it will be Clinton because she will have more appeal over more of the state.
1) I am not surprised by anything I read in this article. Much of what the article discussed was simply confirming everything we already know. Rubio and Sanders will take areas like NOVA, and the higher educated, while Trump and Clinton will take areas with the less educated and possibly Richmond. Cruz and O'malley might take votes away from Trump and Clinton respectively, but that might only give them second place by a small margin, or a win by a small margin.
ReplyDelete2) I think Trump will win Virginia. He has been performing better in most primaries and caucuses than the other candidates. He also has the majority of southern Virginias vote, where a large percentage of the primary votes come from. Trump will more than likely win by a fairly large margin. On the Democrats side, it will be a tight race. Sanders currently has a strong foothold in NOVA, since most of the NOVA population is very liberal, and much younger than the rest of Virginia. However, NOVA doesn't account for enough of the vote to guarantee Sanders a win, especially when Clinton currently holds Richmond, and older, less educated, Southern Virginia. Sanders might start leading in Western Virginia, and then the Urban Crest if younger, more liberal voters come out to the Primary. Sanders will probably win Virginia by a small margin, but that would give him 2 states and could possibly close the gap between him and Clinton, depending on his performance in other states.
~Eyad Hasan
1) I'm not very surprised at what this article had to say. For the most part, the maps of Virginia show the clear difference between northern and southern Virginia and I think this will show dramatically in who wins which parts of Virginia. You can tell that most people in this area support Marco Rubio rather than Trump and it shows in the article, especially with the map about college education.
ReplyDelete2) I think that Hillary will win the Democratic side, mostly because she will have the support of most of Virginia. Besides a few districts it looks to me that Hillary will win, especially in the southern area since she is more likely to get the African American vote. However since Northern Virginia shows more of an Asian minority versus an African American minority, I think Bernie might do better here rather than Hillary (however that won't be enough to win). On the Republican side I think it'll be a tighter race. I'm guessing Rubio will win the north and Trump will win the south with a few districts voting Cruz, but overall I think Trump might take the W here in Virginia (to the dismay of many republicans in Loudoun County).
-Sofia Ackerman
1.My initial reaction was just surprise at how white the southwestern part of Virginia really is. We know that Bernie Sanders typically does better with white voters; however, he also typically does better with college age voters, or parents with college age children that are angry at outrageous tuition. The areas in which there are "collegey" people typically also have a high population of nonwhite voters based on the graphs. So I suppose my initial reaction is that Bernie is feeling the burn: heart burn. I would imagine his chance of winning much of anything in Virginia is basically zero.
ReplyDelete2. So, going off of that, Hillary will win Virginia on the democratic side, simply going off of trends, and the electorate. Hillary will win among those that don't understand the want for free college, and among minority populations, and those seem to me to be the two types of counties in Virginia.
On the Republican side, I was extremely surprised by some points brought up in the article, specifically of the idea that Northern Virginia's more 'intelligent' electorate will be gunning for Marco Rubio. I should hope that an intelligent electorate would be able to see through Rubio's crap to pick a true fiscal conservative such as Kasich. That being said, I think Trump will take Virginia. That white southwestern uneducated area of Virginia is right up his ally. 58% of GOP primary voters in 2012 were college graduates, this election will have a much higher turnout rate which will play into Trump's favor, as when turnout rates are higher that percentage often goes down.
1. I wasn't very surprised with this data because Virginia is pretty predictable. It is very diverse since Northern Virgina is close to DC and the south is largely uneducated white people. I think it makes a lot of sense more educated republicans are leaning towards Rubio because he brings some sanity to the race and Trump predictably gets the uneducated vote because as we know he loves the uneducated vote.
ReplyDelete2. I think Rubio wins and so does Hillary. Rubio will rack up the urban crescent getting a large number of educated votes. I think the key for Rubio would be Trump and Cruz splitting the votes in the south and negating each other making Rubio shoot up. On the democratic side I think Hillary has that perfect southern democrat vote and the backing of the establishment to counteract any momentum Bernie gets from Northern Virginia
- Jake Haines
1. The article does not surprise me because of how much time that rubio has spent in Virginia. Rubio has spent a lot of time campaigning in Virginia and i feel that he can beet out trump in the primary. Sanders also has a good chance of beating hillary in northern Virginia becuase of all the colleges around this area and bernie does well with college age voters.
ReplyDelete2. I feel that trump and hillary will win in viringa just becuase of their popularity throughout the state. Hillary has support in both the south and in the north while bernie has most of his support in the north. Trump is just Trump i feel he will win because hes trump.
-Rishabh Mistry
1) Nothing in this article really surprises me. The article made me think about how many "moderates" Kasich will take from Rubio. Since Rubio supposedly does better among the higher educated, he will definitely make a strong showing in NoVA, but the question is if a strong showing in NoVA will be enough to beat Trump. There's not much to discuss on the Democrtic side; Hillary will definitely win.
ReplyDelete2) Even though Rubio will make a strong showing, I predict Trump to win. His support transcends all categorization, and the highly educated vote won't be able to beat the conglomerate of trump support.
1. I'm not really surprised by the article. Marco Rubio and Bernie Sanders have NoVa in the bag because of their campaining in the area. Rubio will be a favorite amongst the more educated. Hilary Clinton Donald trump will lead in the south and among the less educated.
ReplyDelete2. I think that Trump will win with Rubio as a close second. My reasoning for this is that across the country Trump seems to be a favorite and in the lead. Rubio has come in as a close second to Trump. For the Democrats I think that Hilary will win. Though, Bernie would win the young vote because he has concentrated on the young voters and going to colleges, but he doesn't appeal to most voters in Virginia.
My reactions to this article were pretty interesting! I wasn't really surprised with the fact that Rubio and Sanders have huge fans in Virginia especially in this area that we live in. Virginia is also really predictable because of the variety of people that live here. It makes sense how the less educated people will vote for Trump and the more educated people will vote for Rubio!
ReplyDeleteI think Trump will win and Rubio will come in second and I think Hilary will win but Bernie will probably come in close! He has talked about making college free and stuff but in VA I don't think it'll show the strong effects for democrats so Hilary will probably beat him in the primaries.
-Sejal Desai