Now that Ted Cruz has suspended his campaign, the candidates for the presidential election in the fall seem to be Donald Trump for the Republican Party and Hillary Clinton, barring something unforeseen, for the Democrats.
Read Larry Sabato's piece "The Fall Outlook: Fear and Loathing on the 2016 Campaign Trail" and comment below.
The US has probably never seen an election that was shaped so much by negative campaigning. This is what Sabato's article deals with. Referring to Hunter S. Thompson's quote according to which you have to be a "rock star" to become President, he points out the unique style of this 2016 election. As personal attacks seem to count more than actual political content, the author states that there is a possible danger of a President getting elected not because of the Democratic or Republican voters' support for their candidate, but their strong refusal of the other party's nominee.
ReplyDeleteConcretely, this means that Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump won't become elected as their country's favorite (like it was the case with Obama in 2008) , but much more as the lesser evil.
It is my opinion that this campaign is a negative example for the freedom of our democracy as the leading two candidates of both parties don't appeal to people's reason but limit themselves to dirty campaigning against each other.
On the one hand there is Trump making himself unpopular by hate and the other hand there is Clinton who is disqualified from being President due to her dubious way of acting during the Benghazi affair, continuous lies, her being influenced by lobbyists.
It is my opinion that most of the established politicians running don't seem to be interested in changing our political system to the better (like Bernie Sanders is trying to) and it looks like they finally managed to isolate him and his supporters from the other candidates.
I'm shocked that Cruz and Fiorina dropped out, as I actually thought Cruz may have had a chance at dethroning Trump; however, it is understandable that Cruz may have seen catching up to Trump as a bit of a stretch, especially financially. In relation to Sabato's article, I agree with a lot of what he says about Clinton (more on the negative side). It will definitely be a Trump vs Clinton race if the FBI takes too long to make a decision about Clinton's lies. In my opinion, it'd be a shame if they don't do anything because the public doesn't trust Clinton; I certainly wouldn't want a president who lies about her affairs in office. As from the view on Trump, I think there is a lot of negativity on his side, as well. The #NeverTrump "cult" just shows how the public is focused on the negativity of the election and choosing who is not better than Trump, but instead someone who ISN'T him. I definitely think the election this fall will be an interesting one, with the possibility of surprises from both ends.
ReplyDeleteThis election has been stunning and proves the founding fathers were right that the American people are too stupid to make decisions like this. As a conservative seeing Trump as the nomination is the beginning a transitional period for republicans and maybe the creation of a new party since this party can't even get a candidate that actually represents their party to win. To add to their misfortune they have created a perfect storm for Hillarys reign for a hardcore liberal to receive the Senate position further diminishing the Republican Party. Trump and Hillary don't look like presidential candidates and represent racism and mistrust which are not good descriptions for the 2 candidates that will most likely be representing America. The best chance America has is to take away the 2 term limit and let Obama chill in office another 4 years until we can work out these issues and retry in 2020.
ReplyDeleteKatelyn Wolfgang:
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with the author that it will be Trump and Hilary who will be the nominations. With Cruz out and Kasich suspending his campaign as well, something that came out later, Trump has no one opposing him for the vote. Maybe we should have listened to the founding fathers when they said that the average person was not smart enough to make the right decisions. If we look at voter turn out we see just how little people appear to actually care about politics so it is sometimes a wonder on why we deserve a say when we don't use it. This election really will be negative as people will likely vote for the candidate for their party because they can't stand the idea of the other winning. Both Hilary and Trump have their negative points such as Hilary with Benghazi and Trump with his racists remarks. Neither of them seems that appealing. People don't like either of them but will vote for what they see as the lesser evil. If only the founding fathers could see us now.
I think the overall ideas of this article reflect what I have been thinking about the campaign in general. First, although I did not think that Trump would be the nominee, it is now, with respect to his delegate count, not a surprise that he is the presumptive nominee. In addition, I have no doubt that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination due to the fact that she is 804 delegates ahead of Sanders as of now and 178 away from the number needed (2205). Second, I also feel as if many Americans' votes in November will be influenced by negative partisanship in order to keep the party they oppose from winning. In a country so polarized, people seem to not want to risk voting for ideology they typically wouldn't approve of due to character issues or controversiality associated with their party's candidate. Third, it is no secret that the campaign is and will become even more distasteful. Thus far, America has seen how outspoken Trump can be and how fearless Clinton is in defending herself. Putting two confident candidates against one another in a race towards the highest office in the land will yield unfavorable comments and results. Furthermore, Trump and Clinton debating will not only allow the media to make a lot of money, but the American people are going to grow even more dismayed and polarized. Clinton has a reputation that she needs to solidify and mitigate if she wants to become President and be a respected one and it seems as if Trump has nothing to fear.
ReplyDeleteThis article discusses the points that most of us are thinking right now. Almost no one saw Trump winning back in September, and now that he's the republican nominee the best they can do is cross their fingers and hope they're dreaming. I also think it's interesting that they bring up Clinton's possibility of losing. Hillary obviously has a history of underestimating her opponents, Obama in '08, and even Bernie at the beginning of this race. I wouldn't be surprised if she slowed down her campaign and fell behind for a short while. At the end of the day, this election is going to be contest of "who do we dislike least". He was right when he brought up the negative partisanship aspect of this race, it'll surely be a key component. Ultimately I think more people dislike Hillary less, but I can't be 100% sure.
ReplyDeleteI think that as the race continues, more republicans will come around to supporting and even endorsing Trump (especially since they don't want Clinton to take office). It'll take a while for their soar wounds to heal, but eventually they'll support him.
Based on the past few months, it is not surprising that Clinton and Trump are the last two standing. I am surprised to see that Cruz finally dropped out (although I'm sure he reviewed his mathematical chances more closely than I). It's very disheartening to see that the presidential race will come down to "negative partisanship." As a country, we should be choosing our next leader on what they can bring to the table. Will the 2016 elections be a trend for the next few elections- where money and fame is what you need to win?
ReplyDeleteThe article discusses a potential upset caused by some sort of crisis as Obama finishes out his term in office. If there is any sort of economic crisis, terror attack, etc., his approval rating will drop and it is likely that the country will sway in favor of a Republican leader next, even if it may be Trump. I never thought of this, but it will certainly be interesting to see if this holds true. I am hoping it doesn't.
Although this election season has been anything but predictable, I would strongly argue that the upcoming general election is all ready decided for Secretary (Madame President) Clinton. Democrats are generally favored to win the general election given the higher voter turnout (especially of minorities which tend to lean left) and absence of gerrymandering, both of which tend to work in favor of Republicans during state and congressional races of which voter demographics (more elderly and whiter) are more conducive to GOP victories. Donald's unfavorability ratings are far too high; too high, I might suggest, for even the most politically astute and experienced of candidates, which Mr. Trump most certainly is not, to overcome. Moreover, Trump will be unable to unite the party as his views are throughly misaligned with those amongst party's elected members. This difference is seen most poignantly in the difference between the campaigns of Senate and House Republican campaigns and Mr. Trump's campaigns; Senate and House Republicans will campaign on conservative principles and policies (more defense spending, less entitlement spending, social conservatism, etc.). Mr. Trump, by contrast, will campaign on more elusive topics and most notably hatred and anger of those abandoned by a progressive society and globalized economy. Mr Trump will lament the the destruction of America culture, how America is overrun with immigrants, and how Muslims are inherently vile and destructive. Quite simply, traditional Republicans will either stay at home or leave the top of the ballot empty/vote third party. Trump will never be able to unite the Party without losing his core constituency. By contrast, Clinton will be able to campaign as an experienced moderate with sensible policies and a thorough understanding of policy. The Democratic party is much more united than the Republican Party with 22% of Democrats vowing to not vote for the nominee in the general election if he/she was not their pick in the primary, according to exit polls, and around 40% of Republicans vowing not to vote for Trump. Through a combination of factors, Clinton will win the independent vote and maybe even pick up a significant portion of Republican votes. At this point, the Republican party's primary goal should be for its Senators and Representatives to distance themselves from Trump, denounce his campaign, and focus on winning their state and congressional district races to preserve the GOP's majority in the Senate and House and act as a check against Clinton's Presidency.
ReplyDeleteI find it very interesting that both Cruz and Kasich dropped out leaving Trump as the unofficial Republican nominee. I feel that the Republican Party could have come up with a better plan to work against Trump so at least he wouldn’t automatically get the nominee, and possibly allow for a contested convention. I also have to agree with the author on that people will vote based on one of two things; they hate the idea of Clinton winning that they will settle for Trump, or they hate the idea of Trump as our president and vote for Clinton. Negative partisanship as he called it, will definitely play a huge role in voting in November if it truly comes down to Trump vs Clinton.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing that I think will be interesting to watch, is how the Republican Party in congress will react in regards to a new judge on the supreme court. They have potentially two options, either don't give a hearing and then someone more extreme will be nominated by the new president, which could be made by either Trump or Clinton. Or they can allow for hearings for Garland, as he could be as moderate as they come for potential nominees in the future.
Well, we can pretty much assume who our nominees will be in the general election now. Bernie has no chance of usurping Clinton and Trump is the last republican standing. That being said, the candidates will probably begin campaigning for the general election. The obvious favorite is Hillary Clinton, but she can only really go down from here. Trump is hard to predict. A few months ago we thought he would never get this far, but despite April 1st having come and gone, Trump is exceeding our expectations. I think Republicans and Democrats alike will swallow their pride and vote within the party, despite the lack of a universally accepted candidate. Either way, this will be an interesting election cycle.
ReplyDeleteTrump being the primary candidate was completely unfathomable at the start, but as it went along it seemed less and less impossible. Although the Kasich/Cruz semi cooperative attack seemed like a decent idea, it still felt to me like a 20% of success chance being generous. Like many others I subscribe to the idea that Clinton is pretty much going to win the whole thing pretty handily. It's a a little impressive that the nomination for the republican party raises doubt as to whether or not he is actually representative of the party. It's been an interesting election to say the least. As Trump would have it may the person with the most sizable hands win.
ReplyDelete-Ryan Linville
It is fairly obvious how the next few months are going to pan out. Since early 2016, its been obvious that Trump and Clinton will be the nominations. There is a chance at a realignment or a split within the Repulican party, since they can't produce a candidate representative of the Republican platform. However Clinton is looking at a very difficult run for presidential office. Much of the country dislikes, or doesn't trust her, and many of those supporting Bernie will more than likely switch to Trump once the nominations are set.
ReplyDeleteThe elections are turning out to be more of a reality tv show than an actual election. The republican candidates stooped to Trumps level and as a result much of the country has become polarized. In the end, its going to be an interesting general election, and right now, it is going to go either way.
It makes me sad that we will most likely have another 4, and possibly 8, years of ineffective liberal policies. The best course of action (which Paul Ryan has done) is to come out against Trumps beliefs so that the Republican party doesn't lose anymore credibility. In the end, most republicans will probably vote Trump or just not vote, as the idea of Hillary in office is awful to most. I think we will definitely have a much different picture in November though due to debates, attack ads, and Trumps seemingly endless ability to make you underestimate his power. Nobody would have ever seen him running for president and he's now the republican candidate. No matter what, I think we're in for 4 years of nothing getting done except for more pointless liberal policies with an untrustworthy president.
ReplyDelete-Nick Pignetti
This election symbolizes the effect the media has on the presidential campaign. As Thompson said, you have to be a rock star to capture the interest of the American public. Trump has dominated the media and against all expectations, has dominated the Republican primary, finally forcing Cruz out of the race to fall into the position of the Republican nominee, despite the GOP's best efforts. At this point I would think in a Trump v Clinton race, Clinton wins easily despite her unpopularity but honestly who knows what Trump is capable of. He gets attention wherever he goes and maybe that will be all he really needs to become the leader of our country. Either way, there will be a lot of unhappy Americans counting down the days to the next election.
ReplyDeleteI agree that it will definitely be a Trump versus Clinton race. It is funny to think back to when Trump first announced he was running and many people thought it was a joke, and now he will be the republican nominee. I am not surprised that Cruz dropped out of the race, as it was becoming inevitable with the amount of delegates trump has, but I wasn't expecting it so suddenly. It is very disappointing that voting this election will come down to "negative partisanship," where you vote for a candidate out of dislike for the other candidates. We should take pride in our presidential candidates and rally around their beliefs and ideas. However, with Trump and Hilary, this is almost impossible.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinión i think that this campaign it's been a little bit crazy people are talking and talking about this candidates based on popularity, but not really thinking about what the best for the country is. I am a little surprised that Ted Cruz dropped out because I though we would stay and not give up in the competition try to beat up Trump. Once all this is over people Will just end up voting for who ever the least worst is, because honestly most things this people talk dont convide or make sense. Trump vs Clinton Will be a big things because knowing trump i feel he Will do anything to get her out the way
ReplyDelete--stephany Ayala
Hillary Clinton has all but wrapped up the presidency in the eyes of the media and political commentators; however Sabato's Crystal ball touches on something. Hillary Clinton's success is directly linked to the smooth sailing of the rest of President Obama's term. If a major crisis were to occur, she would be between a rock and a hard place. This brings one of her major flaws to light. What does she believe? What changes does she want to make to the country. No matter how you view President Obama's presidency, you have to agree that their have been good and bad elements. Hillary Clinton is positioning herself to be a second Barack Obama. She hasn't made clear her desire to really make any major changes. It's very hard to motivate supporters, when your slogan is basically 'lets keep doing everything exactly the same'. Most successful presidential candidates in history have had one or two issues that they attack dog over. She needs to find her "it's the economy stupid".
ReplyDelete-Andrew Parr
The article was right in saying, "this is the most important election of our lifetime", with Cruz (who was one of the top advocates for the stop trump campaign) dropping out and Kasich (who promised to stay in the race until the very end) also out of the race, its evident the Republican party has effectively given up. If Trump were to take office, it could symbolize the republican party loosing their grip on areas of the gov't e.g. the House, it would serve as a detrimental blow to the Republican party's power in congress. That being said, I believe that America is on its way to having its first female president. Bernie doesn't have a chance at overtaking taking Hillary even with the momentum of the youth. Trump being in this race has changed the game drastically and has crippled the Republican party. As stated in the article, statistics can't accurately predict what could happen in the general election...
ReplyDeleteGerald Bonsu
This election has been different so far for several reasons. Firstly, it has shown us to what extent the media influences the election. I've heard much less about their policies than I have heard about their personal lives. I do agree with what the article said about polarization helping Trump because this is exactly the same logic I have heard other people using when trying to justify their voting for Trump. I also think the feeling of being amazed that Trump might actually get the nomination is becoming increasingly common.
ReplyDeleteThis election Has been crazy and has been one giant curve ball. People said that there was no way Trump was winning the nomination and that Rubio would win the nomination. But exactly the opposite actually happened. Because of Trump almost no policy was almost never discussed in debates instead they were talking about the size of their hands. The article says that polarization helps Trump and it does. With the super right wing republicans voting for Trump's radical views. I feel that this election will go down in the history books.
ReplyDelete-Rishabh Mistry
I am really surprised that Cruz and Kasich dropped out when they had just said that they would do anything to put a stop to Donald Trump. I agree that it was obvious from the beginning that it would be a Trump v. Clinton election. So our choices would be an extremely negative person and someone that no one trusts. This proves to us how much the media influences the public and that the founding fathers were right on the account that they're too "dumb" to make these decisions.
ReplyDeleteAlthough the numbers are getting closer and closer for the general election. I still feel that Clinton has a very good chance to win in November. Trump's problem with women and minorities just seem too big to overcome, especially with the innate general election advantage Democrats have. I'm inclined to say that the Republican part is much more split with Trump as their nominee, but it's hard to say for sure since so many Sanders supporters I know absolutely loathe Clinton, and would much rather vote for Trump or 3rd party. Negative partisanship will probably be the biggest factor for many voters in this election, especially since Clinton can't find a way to convince voters to vote FOR her, not just against Trump. Clinton is a policy wonk, not a campaigner; Trump is exactly the opposite. If Trump manages to cause serious damage to Clinton, for example in the debates, his chances greatly increase. For now, Clinton holds the lead.
ReplyDeleteI agree with articles predictions that Trump and Clinton will be the nominees for the general election. At this point in the race it is clear that they are the clear nominees. Because of this both candidates will most like start campaigning for the general election earlier than anticipated. Both candidates are viewed negatively. People are going to have choose the lesser of two evils. The candidates are viewed in such a way because of how the media portrays them.
ReplyDeleteThe possibility of a third party candidate making a rise within the next 6 months before the general election is minimal at best, and the nation's mistrust and dislike for Trump in general may mean that Hillary Clinton will be our 45th president. As much as many people cannot come to terms with voting for Clinton, there are many more people who cannot bring themselves to vote for Trump, and in their eyes are selecting the "lesser of two evils." Trump will have issues winning the minority and women votes, and even the republican base is trying to find another emergency candidate to back to ensure that they do not have to vote for Trump in November. On top of that, given Trump's history of using attacks against other candidates, Hillary may gain a few "sympathy" votes - people who are sick of seeing Trump trash-talk his opponents and anyone who generally opposes him, and don't believe he will make a good president because of that, will vote against him.
ReplyDeleteWith the little time left in the election, it's almost inevitable that Hillary and Trump will be the nominees of their respective parties. It's incredibly unlikely that a third party candidate will emerge and gain popularity quickly enough to gain the necessary support. Despite Trump's issues with women and minorities, an enormous amount of Sanders supporters are more willing to vote for him than Clinton. This amazes me and although it's true that she is dishonest and a bit shady, but her experience and expertise makes her a much worthier candidate than Trump. Because of the harsh and at times irrational rhetoric that we have seen in this election, it is likely that the winner will be defined based off not how well they represent American issues, but by how well they can dehumanize and trash-talk their opponents.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the article that Trump and Clinton will be the two nominees. At this point, Sanders does not have enough super delegates to beat Clinton at the Convention, and cannot win enough of the remaining delegates to reach the goal. The media has played a very strong role in this process, as they have almost solely been focusing on the candidates personal lives, and not their policies.
ReplyDeleteJessica Ellison
Even though this is the first presidential elections we can vote in, our parents, other adults around us continue to say how crazy this race is. none of us thought trump would make it this far and none of us ever thought it would come down to a Clinton trump election. Yet here we are. If trump and Clinton were actually the popular candidates, I say we could be smart enough to chose our own president. But we are voting based on which one we hate more, and who can we vote for, regardless of how terrible of a candidate they are, to make sure our least favorite doesn't win. For this, we are not capable of choosing our nominees or our presidents. the founding fathers would never have wanted this. The media is not helping this situation at all. The media is twisting the truth to gain followers on their network rather than showing the true results of polls. The media is also able to censor what goes out to the public and what doesn't. With such easy access to presidential information, and the pressure to believe what those around you feel, people's real opinions aren't being shown. It is also difficult to stand by your decision because there is no real reason to like either president, which makes it easier to go with the candidate those around you claim they will vote for. this is also decreasing our voter turnout. young voters think it is funny and will vote for whoever they dislike the least. more mature voters are conflicted and worried about their next President of the United States. Many take it as a joke, but we need to ensure nothing this outrageous happens again.
ReplyDeleteIt is the sad truth we have been waiting for. Now that the last of the Republican Christians and Democratic Socialists has lost their chance at the election, we are left with two candidates just as unfit for the presidency. This ballot is just as depressing as it is interesting. It is truly sad how rigged our presidential system and society is when we have a two-faced Democratic Nominee who has managed to flop on major key issues of our time such as gay marriage and political affiliation. While trumps radical ideals are so freightening and far'fetch'd, it almost eclipses Hillary's track record as an unreliable candidate. The media has done nothing but say why Trump is terrible and why you should vote Democrat if you want this country to survive, but I don't think it is that simple. It is as if this entire presidential race has been a last minute assembly of the scrubbiest candidates known to man. Not to mention the HUGE polarization of political views that the Democrats and REpublicans have. The Republican side being crazy conservative to a fault, wanting more war in the middle east and huge military spending. Not to mention their almost freightening view of LGBT rights. Then we have the Democrats who claim they are the heroes of this election, when in reality I don't even know what view they have in this election. Other than Bernie Sanders, I have no idea what the Democratic Party has in mind for Hillary's inevitable presidency. It is scary that she can just sit on a stand and say how much she isn't trump as a tactic to gain the highest voter turnout. Then we have Trump who has no idea what he is talking about, shows no respect for other candidates, and constantly belittles anyone who stands in his way. The lack of identity and patriotism is small in the hearts of our two candidates, and it only shows the lack of identity and patriotism of our fellow Americans. At the end of the day, the people need to rise up and take charge of american politics so problems like this don't arise again.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Trump and Hillary will be the two candidates (even though I wish Bernie could pull back up). I think both have their pros and cons, but I think Trump has the upper hand. With the scandal surrounding Hillary as the Sec of State, I think the public finds her as untrustworthy. Trump on the other hand has never held a public office, compared to Hillary. But he has built his businesses up from the ground and kept them at the top. Hillary is not as strong and fiery as Trump. I believe Trump has the upper hand.
ReplyDeleteJoey Burcham